John Gruber of Daring Fireball supposes that having Apple natively support flash would be counter-intuitive to their overall strategy.
The mobile market is wide open in ways that the desktop market is not. E.g., in the mobile OS market, Microsoft isn’t even in first place, let alone a monopoly. And, in the mobile world, Flash is rare, not ubiquitous. Why would Apple help Adobe establish Flash as a de facto standard for the mobile web, too?
My only thought here is that the users who want flash mobile, will eventually get flash mobile, one way or the other, a lesson that Apple has yet to learn even after the jailbroken-then-bricked- iPhone-hoopla last year. Whether anyone cares enough to put in the time and effort will be the real question.